Contact Details
Telephone
650.804.2884
Electronic mail
Fax
206.282.7930
Mailing Address
2117 W. Ruffner St.
Seattle, WA 98199
USA
Projects
Our specialty is working with clients to design and execute a statistical analytical approach to meet their project goals in the most efficient way possible. Here are some of the projects and kinds of questions we have handled for our clients:
- Business Analytics
- Evaluation and Metrics
- Investment analysis
- Product and Manufacturing reliability
- Biostatistics
- Risk management and fraud detection
- Injury and Damages Assessment
- Survey and Sample Size Analysis
We also offer seminars specializing in using statistics as a tool for decision making.
Investment Analysis
We've helped individual investors and venture capital firms decide which investments may be worth pursuing.
Evidence based decision making for individual and venture capital investment
This category of analysis, useful for individual investors and venture capitalists alike, involves investigating the reported performance of a company's product and giving an objective opinion on whether it measures up. For example, if an investor is able to provide us with details about a drug company's Phase I and Phase II trials, we can apply statistical criticism to the results and provide an opinion as to how likely it is to succeed in Phase III.
Case Study
A group of investors was considering buying $2 million worth of stock in a new, foreign pharamceutical company that was developing a drug to treat various disorders of the nervous system. The company had recently finished Phase 3 trials, and the investment group was able to furnish Raven Analytics with publicly available data on Phase 2 and 3 trials. An analysis of the reported results revealed that:
- Definitions of "recovery" were not consistent between the two trials
- Statistically significant results seemed to have been influenced by the assumptions underlying the statistical tests - meaning that more conventional assumptions would render the results barely statistically significant or insignificant.
- Removal of outliers had a large effect on Phase 3 outcomes.
- The sample size and power calculations appeared to be correct.
Results
Raven Analytics concluded that the results were probably not as rosy as had been published and that the long-term success of the drug was not assured. A recommendation of holding off from buying the stock was given. A year later the share price had fallen by 85%.
Long term quantitative investment analysis
Long term quantitative analysis will give you a predictive model based on your investment instruments past performance and quantitative characteristics. A simple example would be to take stocks in a particular industry sector and analyze their past performance, mining data which consists of standardized returns, company's financial characteristics, stock values and characteristics, etc. We do not create models that depend on second-by-second prediction. Our models are focused on longer-term predictors. These analyses can be especially helpful for individuals or groups looking to maximize their long term portfolio returns.
